Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
